What's your weather like right now?

[pepperhead212]

Cooler today, not getting out of the 70s, and cooler in the next week, with at least one day staying in the 60s. And humidity finally going down, at least for a few days. And I'll believe any of those "rainfall chances" they keep talking about when they happen.

[brownrexx]

pepperhead212, I had wondered what it was like "back home" and I guess that my husband would have gotten out his flannel shirts by now. I was joking with him yesterday and asked if he wanted to get out the flannel. It was 90° and sunny yesterday but the nights are really comfortable in the 70's.

[pepperhead212]

brownrexx I have to laugh when I see people running around in winter garb, just because it's in the 50s or 60s at night. Last night it got down to 59° overnight, and today it is supposed to get to the low 70s - a few degrees below average. Later in the week, going back up again.

[Laura_in_FL]

brownrexx , I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the hurricane models are showing the "disturbance" south of Cuba developing into a hurricane which they are forecasting to make landfall Thursday night or Friday in the Big Bend area. And some of the models are showing it as potentially a major hurricane. Of course, hurricane models can be very wrong. The storm might come here to me, go farther west, go into south Florida, or the storm might not develop at all. But since we're only 3.5 days out from landfall, if we wait to see if the models are right, we would have very little time to prepare.

A lot of people could be taken by surprise by this one because it isn't even a tropical storm yet, so the NHC is not issuing advisories. But this time of year (late September/early October) the Gulf of Mexico waters are so warm that when the wind conditions are right, a hurricane can develop extremely quickly into a dangerous storm. Unfortunately, right now the wind conditions are quite favorable for hurricane development, especially once the system passes over Cuba.

The good news is that you are well inland, high and dry, and sitting on sandy soil. So you don't have to worry about the biggest dangers, which are storm surge and flooding. But if the models are right you'd be on the strong (east) side of a fairly nasty storm. So you could be in for some hurricane-force winds and heavy rains, which may lead you to lose power for hours or days. If it were me, I'd gas up the vehicles and get stocked up and ready to live without electricity and running water for a while. Also be prepared for stores and pharmacies to be closed for several days. I also recommend getting any loose stuff picked up and put away around your property.

I'm doing the same hurricane drill up here, just in case the models are wrong and the storm comes here.

There are resources all over the web about preparing your property for hurricanes and specific lists of what supplies you should have on hand. So I won't repeat all of that here. But feel free to ask me if you have any questions.
Hopefully it's a false alarm and you will be eating your non-perishable foods and drinking your bottled water at leisure over the winter. 

[brownrexx]

Laura_in_FL, I saw that on the news this morning and was thinking that it seemed to be more heading to your area but I will be prepared anyway. We do have a generator but should probably fill the gas cans.

We are about 50 miles inland and our elevation is 57 feet so storm surges and flooding are not a worry but of course we can get the heavy rain and also lose power so I will be ready.

Good luck to us both!

[Laura_in_FL]

You and I are both in the dreaded "cone of uncertainty" (the cone on the National Hurricane Center forecast graphic) right now. Right now the cone covers from Tampa to Pensacola. We will have a much better idea of the storm track tomorrow evening or Wednesday morning, but that won't leave a lot of time to get ready for a Thursday night storm.

Outdoor preparations should be done by Wednesday if possible, because weather conditions will begin deteriorating as the day progresses on Thursday in the path of the storm. That doesn't mean Thursday will be completely unusable for outdoor preparations, but as the outer storm bands come through there will likely be intervals of thunderstorms with gusty winds to tropical storm force, with calmer periods in between. Those outer bands will contain stronger storms and will pass more frequently as the storm draws closer.

[mgulfcoastguy]

Should have knocked on wood Laura. 


www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/potential-tropical-cyclone-nine?map=5day&MR=1

[mgulfcoastguy]

Sept 23, 2024 15:44:41 GMT -5 Laura_in_FL said:

You and I are both in the dreaded "cone of uncertainty" (the cone on the National Hurricane Center forecast graphic) right now. Right now the cone covers from Tampa to Pensacola. We will have a much better idea of the storm track tomorrow evening or Wednesday morning, but that won't leave a lot of time to get ready for a Thursday night storm.

Outdoor preparations should be done by Wednesday if possible, because weather conditions will begin deteriorating as the day progresses on Thursday in the path of the storm. That doesn't mean Thursday will be completely unusable for outdoor preparations, but as the outer storm bands come through there will likely be intervals of thunderstorms with gusty winds to tropical storm force, with calmer periods in between. Those outer bands will contain stronger storms and will pass more frequently as the storm draws closer.

Yup nothing like trying to screw a sheet of plywood over a window once the winds get up to 30 mph. It might be a good idea to put any plants still in pots inside, at best they could be wind whipped and at worst drowned. It's the price of paradise.

[octave1]

Heck, it looks like this hurricane is going to hit us too

[mgulfcoastguy]

www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/tropical-storm-helene?map=5day&MR=1

[Laura_in_FL]

All of the models are clustered on a Big Bend landfall for Hurricane Helene, which would mean that it passes between me and brownrexx. Here's hoping they are right! If the models are correct, neither of us will get anything more than low-end tropical storm force winds. Ironically, although the storm is projected to pass much closer to me, she may get slightly more wind and worse weather overall, since she'll be on the strong side of the storm.

But it will be rough tomorrow night in the Big Bend, since the forecast is for a Category 3 storm at landfall, and some of the models show it getting even stronger than that. I hope that folks are heeding the evacuation orders, and I pray that no one is killed in this storm.

[mgulfcoastguy]

What's going to be not good is that it is heading just left of center of Atlanta. It will be down to a tropical storm but Atlanta traffic is a hazard on a good day. From there to Chattanooga then to the western corner of Kentucky. And yes, the Bend is about to get beaten.

[pepperhead212]

Laura_in_FL, brownrexx, mgulfcoastguy, meandtk, and anyone else possibly getting parts of Helene, hope all of you are just getting the rain from it, and not the worst. Prayers and positive thoughts for all of you.

I got rain today! Only .01", but that is typical. Super humid - it was 66° and 90% humidity @11 am today, and tomorrow is supposed to be "more humid". Hopefully, some rain will come with it.

[brownrexx]

.5" of rain so far and no wind yet.

[pepperhead212]

Well, it finally came! I was going to go outside, around 2:30 - when it's usually totally shady in the back - and it was very dark, so I looked out, and it was raining - HARD! At 3:00 it had rained .15", but was letting up a lot, but at least something came! This was the most I've gotten this month - total was well under a half inch, so far, which is why that ground was so hard. Maybe I'll get a little more from the edge of Helene. I hope everyone here in the south is spared the brunt of it!

[mgulfcoastguy]

It should actually improve my weather for a couple of days, lower temperature and humidity. I'm way to the West out of both the wind and tidal surge zones. Laura is to the west of the projected path but close enough to get some wind impact . This is going to stay a hurricane all the way to central Georgia and tropical storm or heavy rain past Nashville Tennessee . I shudder to think about my next hurricane insurance premium but the Bend area of Florida is about to be flattened by this time tomorrow.

[bestofour]

We have a tropical storm warning here in NC. We were on our way to Amelia Island, but I chickened out.

[brownrexx]

Nothing happening here yet except that we have had .8" of rain so far. Helene is predicted to make landfall tonight after dark.

[Laura_in_FL]

1.4" of rain so far. The radar makes it look like we're getting heavy rain right now but it's actually a drizzle. It's too early still for anything more than light breezes, but we're only expecting tropical storm force winds here. No big deal. brownrexx, it should be getting windy where you are shortly, though it looks like you won't get anything more than tropical storm force winds, either.

But I don't envy the folks in the Big Bend today.

[brownrexx]

Thankful that you and I seem to be relatively safe Laura_in_FL ,

It was sunny earlier so I took a swim in the pool and listened to the wind starting.

So far we have just had intermittent gusts of 24 mph and now it is becoming totally overcast. The weather guys say that the worst will arrive later tonight.

I am definitely glad not to be living in the Big Bend either!

I checked on my little raised bed garden and put baskets over 2 of the tomatoes so if everything else gets blown flat, at least I will have tomatoes.

My snap peas have emerged but are too small to be damaged by the storm.

[brownrexx]

I hope that Laura_in_FL, made it through the hurricane OK. I am OK here. We had some howling winds but they didn't damage anything other than a few small branches and leaves which were strewn across the yard.

We only got 2" of rain although towns within 20 miles from us are flooded by the 10' storm surge.

I went out this morning and checked my raised bed and everything was OK. The beans lost a couple of leaves but the tomatoes and peppers seemed to be OK and I have a row of sugar snap peas just popping up. I love seeing those bright green new plants. It only takes a couple of days for seeds to germinate in this warm soil. It's amazing.

I don't usually grow herbs from seed but buying seedlings in my area is difficult if not impossible so I picked up packs of basil and parsley and will plant them today.

It's funny to see seed racks appearing in the stores at this time of year.

[Laura_in_FL]

All is well here. I got 4.5" of rain and some tropical storm force winds for a few hours starting around 9pm, but no damage. (We did take down the shade cloth before the storm - it probably would have been shredded if we'd left it up.) Out at our property one of the dead trees from Hurricane Michael came down, but that was a GOOD thing. It had been looking like it was about to fall for a while now, making DH really nervous to mow/weed whack near it. Now that it's down he can clean up that area without fear.

Today has been a beautiful day - sunny with a high of 83 and low humidity. Breezy, but not too much to enjoy going outside. Hopefully in a few weeks we'll get a lot more days like this. But in the meantime we're looking at upper 80s and more humidity for the next week.

EDIT: Because of storm surge, I am really looking forward to moving farther inland, too. Living at 50' elevation (and on a local high) means not having to worry about flooding any more!

[pepperhead212]

Glad to hear that both of you have survived the brunt of that storm, and I was especially concerned about Laura, in that area. Stay safe everyone!

My weather here was damp all day, but not enough turn off my timers - .04", though maybe more later.

[octave1]

Hurricane Helene made it all the way here, some 800 miles from landfall.
All night and all day rain, with the occasional gusty wind. Some people lost power and several trees fell.
More rain predicted for tomorrow as well. 65ºF out there right now, so not too bad.
We'll be back to seasonal temps by Monday.

[brownrexx]

It is really bad here in a couple of the nearby towns. They are a couple of miles inland and they still had flooding and many are still without power in this hot and humid environment. Many people lost everything and are in shelters.

They are not on the water but are at only a few feet of elevation so the water just keeps traveling across that flat land during a storm surge. We looked at elevation when considering houses. Ours is at about 50" elevation so not much risk of flooding but of course wind can affect any elevation and we are thankful to have avoided the severe winds that some had.

It is very sad but it is also encouraging to see how the community has come out to offer help. Some people are even offering their homes as temporary accommodations.

[Laura_in_FL]

brownrexx, most of us who have been in Florida and other parts of hurricane country for a long time have had this happen to them or seen it happen to friends and family. So coastal communities usually pull together after events like this. So while it is always heartening to see, it doesn't surprise me at all.

In the coming weeks and months there will probably be many opportunities to donate your time, money, or goods if you feel so inclined. But in these early days the best thing to do is to donate to established charities with experience in hurricane aid, but stay out of the way until the roads are clear and all of the search and rescue efforts are over. Badly hit communities may also be under curfew or even be restricted to residents only for days or weeks to prevent looting.

This may seem controversial, but I cannot recommend the Red Cross as a hurricane charity. They get all the press but really don't get boots on the ground and help the way you might think. I don't know anyone who said the Red Cross really helped them after Hurricane Michael. From local experience, Samaritan's Purse, the Salvation Army, Mercy Chefs, World Central Kitchen, local and regional food banks, local churches (which usually get lots of volunteers and donations via their denomination's regional or national organizations), and some local restaurants and other local businesses are the ones who actually go out to where the need is greatest and bring people what they actually NEED after the storm.

[mgulfcoastguy]

Sadly I have to echo what Laura said about the Red Cross. After Katrina mission trips from church or denominations seemed to do best along with the Salvation Army and local neighbors helping their neighbors. Let me say that they are all good with cleanup but unless they are licensed don't let them do any of the actual repair especially plumbing, electrical, and roofing.Sometimes faulty work results in more damage later. Their intentions are good and speedy cleanup is the first priority.

For those who are damaged, but not relocating, now is the time to take the insurance pay out and add to it to upgrade roofing and windows maybe HVAC if necessary. Interest rates are not historically high, about what my mortgage on my house was in 2002 and spread out over 5 or ten year not that much. They could result in lower insurance rates or at least the ability to keep insurance. Insurance companies are not currently insuring houses with asphalt shingles more than 10 years old so it's a good time to look into metal roofing even if it is quoted at twice the price of a shingle roof. Also a good time to remove any trees within falling distance of the house. (note: there are federal tax incentives for cool metal roofs, solar power, certain HVAC upgrades etc.)

[bestofour]

I only got about 4 inches of rain but the wind played havoc around here. A lot of trees down and roofs blown off. My power and internet were down for over 30 hours. Western NC is a gigantic mess with flooding, no cell service, no power, impassable roads. Just horrible.

[brownrexx]

bestofour, I saw some of that on the news today. Glad you are OK.

Laura_in_FL, you are right on in your comments. There is a 7 pm - 7 am curfew in the flooded areas and many of the local restaurants are providing free meals to those affected as well as the linemen.

I agree with you and mgulfcoastguy, about the Red Cross. I would much rather support local charities.

[pepperhead212]

Let there be light! We have had about 8 days without sunlight, but less than a quarter inch of rain, at least in my area - even less in other areas. Yesterday, there was a hint of sunlight, but only brief. The humidity was lower, finally, but still a little high. Temp only 71°, and only in the mid to low 60s at night.